IAVCEI Special events

Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: Moving from theory to practice with the software package BET_EF (Workshop)
Warner Marzocchi and Jacopo Selva; INGV
The workshop aims to present BET_EF, a free software package (OS Windows) that allows graphically supported computing of short- to long-term eruption forecasting by merging all the available information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and any kind of past data, all of them provided by the end user. BET_EF deals with short- and long-term forecasting; therefore it can be useful in many practical aspects, such as land use planning and during volcanic emergencies.

The Workshop will be held on the Thu 12^th of July from 5:30 pm to 9:00 pm in Room 16 of the Academy of Fine Arts.

The workshop will be organized in three parts:
Part 1. A short introduction to the BET model.  We show the technical details of the code and the practical utility.
Part 2.  How to install BET_EF. The code will be distributed for free to the participants. We also give assistance to the participants with laptops.
Part 3.  How BET works. Several tutorials will be run, to show how volcanological information is uploaded and how BET_EF works in practical cases, i.e., during emergencies.